Boeing reports third-quarter results on Tuesday, Oct. 27, and the headline number won’t be the one that matters. Cash will. Boeing burned $823 million of free cash flow in the first half of the year, then made $631 million in the second quarter. Was that a turning point or just a good quarter? Boeing earnings should give the first real answer.
Where Boeing left things in July
The second-quarter release showed revenue of $24.56 billion, up 8%, and a loss of $0.67 a share. Operating cash flow came to $1.36 billion. Boeing delivered 171 jets, up from 150 a year earlier, and the backlog hit a record $715 billion, with more than 6,200 airplanes on order.
The weak spots were familiar, though. Commercial Airplanes still lost money, with an operating margin of negative 2.7%, and the defense unit booked $280 million of losses on the new Air Force One program. The company ended June with $20.0 billion in cash and $45.9 billion in debt. Manageable, but not comfortable.
What to watch in Boeing earnings
Deliveries come first for Boeing earnings, because they’re the one piece of the quarter we already know. Boeing’s Oct. 13 update counted 161 commercial airplanes handed over in the third quarter, down from 171 in the second. The 737 accounted for 124 of them, the 787 for 22, the 767 for 10 and the 777 for just 5. Defense and space added 33 deliveries, including seven KC-46 tankers. Boeing cautions that these numbers aren’t final until it files results, but fewer jets out the door usually means less cash coming in.
The 737 rate is next. Management says it’s “now ramping to 47 airplanes per month,” according to a Hudson Labs preview, with 52 the following target. A new 737 North Line began low-rate production in July, and Boeing has said the 737-7 and 737-10 should be certified this year, with deliveries starting in 2027. If the rate holds and those dates don’t move, that’s the cleanest sign the recovery is real.
The 777X is the bigger worry. Hudson Labs puts flight testing about 55% complete, with first delivery still planned for 2027. But there’s a labor risk too. Boeing has flagged an upcoming contract vote by its SPEEA engineers, and a strike would stop 777 certification work until they returned. Any slip would hurt the cash story.
Then there’s the full-year target. The same preview says Boeing has guided to $1 billion to $3 billion of free cash flow for 2026, and that management “remain[s] on track” for it. Consensus is for third-quarter revenue near $24.96 billion and a net loss around $152 million. Since the first half was negative, even the low end of the range needs a strong finish, so the Boeing earnings call is where management confirms it or trims it.
Editor’s take
For Boeing earnings, skip the per-share number and watch cash and the 737 rate. Boeing’s profit swings on one-time charges, and another loss is already expected. A positive cash quarter that keeps the $1 billion to $3 billion range intact would say much more about the turnaround than any headline. If 737 output stalls short of 47, or the engineers’ vote turns ugly, the recovery story gets harder to tell.
Two outcomes would change how these Boeing earnings read. A beat on cash with the range reaffirmed would suggest the second quarter wasn’t a one-off, and it would give Boeing room to fund the 737 ramp without leaning harder on debt. A miss, or a cut to guidance, would put the full-year target in doubt and bring the balance sheet back into focus, since $45.9 billion of debt doesn’t shrink on its own.
For read-throughs from the same sector, see our coverage of Lockheed Martin’s results and United Airlines and fuel costs. Airline health feeds straight into Boeing’s order book.
