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Intel earnings arrive Thursday, Oct. 29, after the market closes, with a call at 2 p.m. Pacific. Intel guided to revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 a share. Analysts are betting on more. MarketBeat’s consensus is $16.5 billion and $0.40, so a result that only hits guidance could still read as a miss. On a GAAP basis the company guided to $0.31 a share and a 41.0% gross margin.
What Intel reported in July
The second-quarter release looked strong on the surface. Revenue was $16.13 billion, up 25%, with non-GAAP earnings of $0.42 a share and a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.8%. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said, “AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute.” Intel Products brought in $15.1 billion, up 28%, and non-GAAP net income was $2.2 billion.
The GAAP numbers were a mess, though. Diluted GAAP earnings were a loss of $2.16 a share. Pulse 2.0’s summary of the release says most of the roughly $11 billion net loss came from a $12.5 billion mark-to-market charge on escrowed shares tied to Intel’s CHIPS Act agreement. Foundry grew 31% to $5.8 billion, but it still lost $2.09 billion at the operating line.
What to watch in Intel earnings
Can data center keep growing?
That’s the question for Intel earnings. The Data Center and AI unit grew 59% to $6.3 billion in the second quarter, per Pulse 2.0, and growth that big is hard to repeat. The Super Micro forecast shows AI server demand hasn’t cooled elsewhere, which helps.
Who is buying?
Intel says SambaNova and Foxconn are co-developing rack-scale AI systems built on Xeon processors, and that its Xeon 6+ data center chip is built on 18A. New customer names on Thursday would back up the demand story. A quiet call would leave investors leaning on the guidance alone.
What about PCs and the factories?
A subset of Panther Lake chips is in high-volume production using ASML’s High-NA EUV machines, and Core Ultra Series 3 has been adopted by more than 130 edge AI and robotics customers. Intel also announced a €5 billion investment in Xeon 6 manufacturing capacity. On the process side, 18A-P entered risk production on schedule, so any hint of outside customers for the next nodes would be welcome news.
Will margins hold?
Intel guided to a 42.0% non-GAAP gross margin, just above July’s 41.8%. There’s little room for error. If Foundry costs run hot, it’s gone.
How big does the spending bill get?
Capital spending for 2026 went to $20 billion from $18 billion, and CFO Dave Zinsner said the company is “meaningfully increasing our investments in equipment, clean room space, and substrates.” Cash from operations was $7.0 billion last quarter. Analysts will want to know how much of that the build-out eats, and how long the heavy spending lasts.
Editor’s take
For Intel earnings, Q4 matters more than Q3. Analysts have already raised the bar, so a beat earns little credit, and the stock can swing on guidance alone. The best case is steady data center growth, a margin at or above 42% and a Q4 range that clears expectations. The worst is a margin miss while the $20 billion spending plan stays put. A weak guide invites doubts about AI demand, and a strong one lifts the bar for 2027. Either way, and this matters for anyone holding the stock, the Intel earnings call is where the company explains how it plans to turn heavy spending into profit.
Intel earnings are one of several AI-spending reports this week. For the bigger picture, see our preview of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon earnings, which sets the demand backdrop for chipmakers.
