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Eli Lilly earnings land Thursday, Oct. 29, before the market opens, with a call at 10 a.m. Eastern time, as the company confirmed.
Revenue is expected near $22.6 billion, according to MarketBeat’s consensus. That’s a touch below the $22.97 billion in Lilly’s second-quarter release, and well above the $17.6 billion of a year ago. The earnings figure is harder to pin down. Estimates range from $5.70 to $7.54 depending on the source, because big one-time charges for acquired research keep moving the numbers.
What Lilly reported in August
The release was a blowout. Revenue hit $22.97 billion, up 48%, with Mounjaro at $9.94 billion (up 91%) and Zepbound at $4.93 billion (up 46%). U.S. revenue rose 33% to $14.4 billion, while sales outside the U.S. jumped 80% to $8.6 billion. Non-GAAP earnings were $8.38 a share, including $3.03 of charges for acquired research. Non-GAAP gross margin was 86.3%, and R&D spending rose 14% to $3.82 billion.
Lilly then raised its 2026 outlook to $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion of revenue, up from $82 billion to $85 billion. Non-GAAP earnings guidance is $35.50 to $36.50 a share. The top end of that range came down from $37.00, because the second-quarter charge ate into it.
What to watch in Eli Lilly earnings
Is a third guidance raise coming?
Possibly, and it’s the key question for Eli Lilly earnings. Lilly has already raised its 2026 revenue range twice, and full-year consensus of $88.68 billion is above the top of it, according to 24/7 Wall St. If Lilly doesn’t raise the range again, the gap between what the company says and what the Street expects will start to look awkward.
Can volume keep beating price?
The same report says U.S. prices fell 9% last quarter before rebate adjustments. CFO Lucas Montarce said, “We’re going to more than offset that with volume growth.” That’s the bet, and the quarter will show whether it’s working. Lower prices are also part of a bigger story for patients, which we covered in our Medicare open enrollment guide.
How is the new pill selling?
Foundayo, the brand name for orforglipron, brought in $98 million in its first quarter on the market. Lilly has also filed it in the U.S. for type 2 diabetes. A third-quarter figure that roughly doubles would show the launch has legs. Behind it sits retatrutide, which finished its clinical package and has a U.S. filing planned for the first quarter of 2027.
Is the stock already priced for it?
That’s the risk for Eli Lilly earnings. Shares have risen 42.4% over the past year against 17.3% for the S&P 500, per Yahoo Finance, and 23 of 29 analysts rate the stock Strong Buy. Good news is expected. Back in the second quarter of 2025, 24/7 Wall St. notes, the shares fell 14.14% on report day despite an earnings beat. Outside the U.S., Mounjaro grew 172% last quarter after China added it to its national reimbursement list, so international strength is already in the numbers too.
Editor’s take
For Eli Lilly earnings, ignore the headline EPS number. Charges for acquired research make it a poor guide, and analysts can’t even agree on the starting point. Revenue growth, the Mounjaro and Zepbound split, and the guidance range are the numbers that matter. The stock has run hard, so a beat that merely matches whisper expectations may not be enough. A third raise and a strong Foundayo ramp probably would be. Guidance matters as much as the quarter itself, because the market is already pricing in another raise.
It’s worth keeping the wider market in mind too. Our weekly market recap shows how jumpy investors have been, and a company this big can move an index on its own.
