We may earn a commission when you buy through links on this page. It doesn't change what we recommend.
Figures as of Oct. 22, 2026. The Fed’s next decision is due Oct. 28.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023, and its officials have said another increase is likely before the end of the year. This page explains what the Fed decided, when it decides next, and what a Fed rate decision does and does not change for borrowers and savers. It is general information, not financial advice.
In this guide
- What the Fed decided in September
- What officials say comes next
- When the Fed meets next
- What a Fed rate decision means for borrowers
- What it means for savers
- Why your mortgage quote may not follow the Fed
- Latest Fed news
What the Fed decided in September
On Sept. 16 the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75% to 4.00%, according to the Fed’s policy statement. The vote was 12 to 0. The new range took effect Sept. 17, and the Fed’s implementation note set the interest rate it pays banks on reserve balances at 3.90% and the discount rate for banks (the primary credit rate) at 4.0%.
It was the first increase since July 2023, according to the Fed’s table of rate changes. The range had been 3.50% to 3.75% since a cut in December 2025, and the committee held it there at its July 2026 meeting, when three members dissented because they wanted to raise rates then.
The statement was short. It said economic activity is “expanding at a solid pace,” that “inflation remains elevated,” and that the increase “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” It ended with a line the Fed has repeated in recent statements: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
What officials say comes next
The minutes of the September meeting, released Oct. 7, say “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” The same paragraph adds that officials “approached each meeting with an open mind” and that future decisions depend on incoming data.
The projections officials published in September point the same way. The median official expects the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 4.1%, measured at the middle of the target range. The current range’s midpoint is 3.875%, so by our arithmetic the median implies one more quarter-point increase this year. The median projection is 4.1% for the end of 2027 and 3.9% for the end of 2028, which would mean no cuts until 2028. Officials also expect inflation, measured by the PCE price index, to end 2026 at 3.7%, well above the 2% goal.
Projections are not promises. Each official writes them under his or her own assumptions, and they change as the data does.
Futures markets publish their own implied odds of a hike before each meeting. Those odds move daily, sometimes sharply after a single data release, and they are a market price rather than a Fed forecast. Our dated news stories below report them with the date they were taken.
When the Fed meets next
According to the FOMC meeting calendar, the remaining 2026 meetings are:
- Oct. 27-28. The September minutes confirm this date.
- Dec. 8-9. This meeting comes with a new set of economic projections.
The Fed’s September statement was released at 2 p.m. Eastern on the second day of the meeting. Minutes follow three weeks after each decision.
The calendar lists tentative 2027 meetings on Jan. 26-27, March 16-17, April 27-28, June 8-9, July 27-28, Sept. 14-15, Oct. 26-27 and Dec. 7-8. The Fed says each date is tentative until it is confirmed at the meeting before it.
Kevin Warsh chairs the committee, according to the September minutes.
What a Fed rate decision means for borrowers
The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. It feeds most directly into borrowing that resets often.
- Credit cards. Variable card rates typically adjust within one or two billing cycles of a Fed move. On a $5,000 balance, a quarter point adds about $12.50 a year in interest, by our arithmetic. The bigger cost is the rate already on the card.
- Adjustable-rate loans. Adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit also tend to rise after an increase, on their own reset schedules.
- Fixed-rate loans. A fixed-rate mortgage, car loan or student loan you already have does not change when the Fed moves.
What it means for savers
Savers are on the other side of the same trade. High-yield savings accounts, money market funds and certificates of deposit generally stay attractive while the Fed is raising rates. Rates vary widely between banks, so compare them in our guide to the best high-yield savings accounts.
One caution: if inflation stays near the Fed’s 3.7% projection for this year, a savings yield below that is still losing purchasing power.
Why your mortgage quote may not follow the Fed
The Fed does not set mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed mortgage tends to track the 10-year Treasury yield, and the bond market, not a committee, sets that yield. Lenders adjust their quotes as it moves.
As of Oct. 21 the 10-year yield was 5.13%, according to the Treasury’s daily par yield curve. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of Oct. 22, down from 7.40% a week earlier and up from 6.19% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. Our 10-year Treasury yield explainer and mortgage rates page track both.
Long-term yields can also rise on their own. The National Association of Home Builders noted in October that long-term rates accelerated after the Fed’s September increase, and said 2026 growth has been heavily dependent on AI, which it described as “crowding out lending for the rest of the economy, including housing.” Forces like that belong to the bond market, so a Fed pause would not automatically bring mortgage rates down.
Published mortgage averages also differ, because each survey measures something different. Freddie Mac’s weekly average is based on loan applications submitted to it, so a single day’s quote from a lender can sit above or below it.
Small moves still cost money. On a $400,000, 30-year fixed loan, 7.32% works out to about $2,748 a month in principal and interest, and a quarter point higher, 7.57%, to about $2,816, by our arithmetic. That is about $68 a month before taxes and insurance.
Rate locks matter more than most shoppers expect. Until a rate is locked, a quote floats with the market. Locks typically run 30 to 60 days, and a locked rate generally holds if the loan closes before the lock expires and the borrower meets its conditions. If you are buying, ask for the lock length and any extension fees in writing, and compare quotes from several lenders on the same day.
Latest Fed news
- How September’s consumer price report put a second Fed hike in play, and what it meant for paychecks and mortgage quotes (Oct. 16).
- What Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, and didn’t say, about the next move, after producer prices jumped in September (Oct. 16).
This page is general information, not financial advice. Rates and dates change; check the linked Fed, Treasury and Freddie Mac pages for the latest figures.
