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The Conference Board releases its October consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 10 a.m. ET. September’s reading was 81.9, down 6.7 points from August’s 88.6, according to the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data.
Consumer confidence index: key numbers
| Measure | September |
|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 81.9 (August: 88.6) |
| Present Situation Index | 109.3 (down 7.9) |
| Expectations Index | 63.6 (down 5.9) |
| 12-month inflation expectations, average | 6.1% |
| 12-month inflation expectations, median | 5.1% |
| Expect higher interest rates in 12 months | 68.4% |
What September’s consumer confidence index showed
The Present Situation Index, which measures how people see current conditions, fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6. That was its third straight monthly decline.
Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist, said confidence deteriorated notably in September. Views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. Consumers expect business conditions and the job market to weaken over the next six months. They still expect household incomes to rise, though by less than before.
Jobs, prices and rates in the survey
The labor market differential fell 2.5 points to +1.7%. The measure subtracts the share who say jobs are hard to get from the share who say jobs are plentiful. In September, 23.6% said jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%. And 21.9% said jobs were hard to get, up from 20.3%.
Prices were a theme in the written comments. The Conference Board said references to oil and gas prices reached new highs. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 points to 6.1%. The median rose 0.3 points to 5.1%.
The share of consumers who expect higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 points to 68.4%. The survey period included a federal funds rate hike. The Jolt Journal covered the Fed’s next move in its look at the Fed meeting, a hold and the odds of a December hike.
Looking ahead, net expectations for the labor market fell 3.1 points to -14.4%. The Conference Board also said the share of consumers calling a U.S. recession over the next 12 months somewhat likely rose, while the share calling it not likely fell. Those recession answers are not part of the index calculation. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months, though that optimism eased.
How it compares with the Michigan survey
A second survey also points down. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment reading was 46.3, as covered in The Jolt Journal’s report on the consumer sentiment index at 46.3. The two surveys use different methods, so their levels do not match. Michigan’s index has averaged about 84 since 1978, while the Conference Board sets 1985 at 100.
Both surveys moved the same way in September. Each showed households worried about prices and the job market.
What to watch on Tuesday
The Conference Board says its next release is Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. The consumer confidence index is a monthly survey, and the September figures were based on responses collected from Sept. 1 to 23. The October survey will capture a month in which gas prices and rate expectations stayed in the news.
Three numbers matter most. The headline index shows whether September’s 81.9 held or fell again. The Expectations Index shows whether the third straight decline became a fourth. The inflation expectations figures show whether the 6.1% average rose further.
Tuesday’s consumer confidence index will not set Fed policy. It adds to the picture of how households feel about spending, work and prices. Use it alongside the Fed’s own data rather than as a forecast for any one household’s finances.
