The Q3 GDP report is due Thursday, Oct. 29, at 8:30 a.m. ET, together with September’s personal income and outlays data. That release contains the PCE price index the Federal Reserve prefers, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule. Both land one day after the Fed’s Wednesday decision, so the central bank will make its call before seeing either.
What the Q3 GDP report will measure
The advance estimate is the first look at third-quarter growth, and it gets revised later. The last official reading, the third estimate for the second quarter, showed real GDP growing at a 2.2% annualized rate. The BEA credits consumer spending, investment and exports, partly offset by imports, according to its GDP page. First-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%.
What forecasters expect
For the Q3 GDP report, economists surveyed by The Associated Press see growth of 1.7%, a slowdown from the second quarter, as reported by Daily Sabah. Other forecast compilations differ, so treat any single number as a rough guide. What matters is the direction relative to 2.2%, and which parts of the economy drove it.
Why the PCE inflation reading is the sharper test
The same AP survey expects the September PCE price index to show a 3.7% annual rate, up from 3.4% in August. That would be well above the Fed’s 2% goal. In its Sept. 16 statement, the Fed said “inflation remains elevated” as it raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, in a 12-0 vote, according to the FOMC statement.
AP links the price pressure to the U.S. war with Iran, which began in early 2026 and disrupted oil supplies. That ties the GDP and PCE data to energy costs households feel directly. You can follow those on the site’s gas prices and Brent crude page.
AP also reports that the Fed is expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, with Wall Street still pricing one more hike in December. If you missed the last meeting, Jolt Journal has explained what the Fed did and what it means for you, and how September’s CPI shifted the odds.
Editor’s take
Read the Q3 GDP report next to the PCE number, not on its own. Advance estimates get revised, so the BEA’s release Thursday morning is the one to trust.
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