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United Airlines earnings arrive after the market closes on Tuesday, October 20, and the main question is whether the airline can keep passing high fuel costs on to customers. Delta Air Lines cut its full-year profit forecast on October 9, citing fuel. United’s guidance for the quarter was already below Wall Street’s average, and its shares have fallen in recent weeks. This preview covers what to expect from United Airlines earnings, what the company told investors in July, and which numbers matter most.
What United Airlines earnings need to show
According to Live and Let’s Fly, United reports its third-quarter results after the close on October 20, and the earnings call follows the next morning. The central question is fuel. In July, United said it expected to recover 80% to 90% of its higher fuel costs through revenue in the third quarter, and all of the increase in the fourth quarter. The blog’s author says he will watch whether United can keep hitting those targets or has to hold back on fare increases because of competition.
That makes this report less about demand and more about pricing power. If travelers keep paying higher fares, United can offset the fuel bill. If they don’t, the gap lands directly on profit. Either way, the answer will show up in revenue and in what management says about the fourth quarter.
What United told investors in July
On July 15, United reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share, ahead of the $1.85 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected, according to a Yahoo Finance report from July 16. It raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $9 to $11 per share. But the outlook for the third quarter was softer. United guided to $2.50 to $3.50 per share, below the Wall Street average of $3.62, and shares fell about 3% in after-hours trading.
Management also said it expected roughly $6 billion in additional fuel costs in 2026. At the time, Gulf Coast jet fuel was around $3.67 a gallon, below wartime peaks but well above the roughly $2.30 it cost before the war began. Yahoo’s summary says strong premium travel lifted earnings, and that international demand helped absorb part of the cost pressure.
What Delta just showed
Delta is the closest read-through. The Live and Let’s Fly post reports that Delta’s adjusted revenue was $17.6 billion, up 16%, but adjusted pre-tax profit rose only 1% to $1.5 billion. Adjusted fuel expense jumped 62% to $4.1 billion. Delta’s adjusted operating margin fell to 9.4% from 11.1%, and non-fuel costs per unit of capacity rose 7.3%.
Delta then cut its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $5.10 to $5.60 per share, down from $6.50 to $7.50. It said it expects an additional $6 billion in fuel costs this year. There was good news mixed in: premium revenue rose 18% on a 6% increase in premium seats, and Delta expects about 20% revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Whether United follows the same pattern is what Tuesday’s report will answer.
What analysts expect
Going into United Airlines earnings, StockStory’s preview says analysts expect United’s revenue to grow 17.5% from a year earlier, compared with 2.6% in the same quarter last year. United has missed Wall Street revenue estimates several times over the past two years, according to the preview, so the top line deserves a close look. In the second quarter, revenue was $17.67 billion, up 16% and in line with expectations, while earnings beat and EBITDA missed.
The stock has had a rough month. StockStory says United shares are down 15.9% over the last month and trade near $96.23, while analysts have kept their estimates mostly unchanged. The average price target in that preview is $152.48. That gap between the share price and the target suggests analysts see room for recovery, but price targets are opinions, not forecasts anyone can bank on.
How to read the numbers
Airline earnings reports can look confusing because companies report adjusted figures that leave out certain items. Delta, for instance, gave adjusted revenue of $17.6 billion against reported revenue of $20.2 billion, with the difference coming from items such as third-party refinery sales. When United reports, check whether the adjusted figure and the reported figure tell the same story, and compare guidance with the ranges above rather than with a single headline number. A beat on earnings paired with a weak forecast can still send a stock lower, as happened in July, when shares fell about 3% after hours despite the second-quarter beat.
The fuel bill and the wider economy
Fuel is the thread connecting all of the United Airlines earnings questions. Higher pump prices also hit drivers and retailers, as we covered in our report on gas at $4.33 and Brent crude above $110. Airlines face the same pressure at larger scale, and they can only offset it if customers keep buying tickets at higher prices.
A second thread is competition. For another earnings preview from the same day, see our GM earnings preview. In the airline business, the key question is which carriers can raise fares without losing passengers, and which have to absorb the cost.
What to watch in United Airlines earnings
A few lines will matter when United reports. The first is the fuel recovery rate for the third quarter, compared with the 80% to 90% target. The second is the fourth-quarter outlook, where United said in July that it expected to recover all of the fuel increase. The third is the full-year earnings range of $9 to $11, which could move up, hold, or come down after Delta’s cut. The fourth is premium demand, since it supported results at both Delta and United this year and any softening would stand out. None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and the results can differ from what anyone expects.
Editor’s take
United Airlines earnings are a test of pricing power more than a test of demand. Delta showed that strong revenue and shrinking margins can exist side by side, and United’s own guidance already hinted at the same squeeze. If United confirms it can recover the fuel increase, the stock’s recent slide may look overdone. If it concedes ground, Delta’s cut may look like the start of a trend and not a one-off. Either way, the fuel recovery rate is the number to look for first.
