A trillion dollars is a big number to put on a shopping season. The National Retail Federation did it anyway on October 15, forecasting that November and December sales will climb 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Trade coverage calls that a first for the industry. The holiday sales forecast arrives with gas prices up, interest rates high, and plenty of households watching their budgets, so it’s fair to ask how much of that growth is real, how good NRF’s last call was, and who’s carrying the weight.
What the holiday sales forecast says
NRF’s press release puts holiday sales up 4.2% from 2025, to $1.013 trillion. Last year’s season grew 3.1% to $972 billion. The count runs November 1 through December 31 and skips car dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, so it covers core retail and not everything people buy.
There was no shopper survey behind the number. NRF built it with an economic model fed by consumer spending, disposable income, jobs, wages, inflation, and earlier monthly retail sales reports. Models lean on the past, and that’s their weak point when prices or moods turn.
What the dollar figures mean
Put it in dollars and the increase is about $41 billion, going from $972 billion to $1.013 trillion. A single point of growth is worth roughly $9.7 billion, by our math, which means the gap between last year’s 3.1% and this year’s 4.2% comes to around $11 billion for the entire country. That’s not much cushion. Prices or moods could shift it easily.
The exclusions cut both ways. Gas stations and restaurants sit outside the measure, so it won’t capture what pricier fuel does to a trip to the store or a night out. Money spent at the pump doesn’t go to gifts, a link NRF chief economist Mark Mathews draws below.
How the last holiday sales forecast fared
Last year’s call didn’t land. Retail Dive reports NRF predicted growth of 3.7% to 4.2% for 2025, and sales rose 3.1%. Suppose this year repeats that 3.1%. Our math puts the total near $1.002 trillion, still over the line, so the trillion-dollar milestone is sturdier than the 4.2% rate. Read that rate as a target, not a promise.
Growth is partly inflation
Mathews said nearly half of the nominal growth should come from real spending growth. The rest is price. Buy the same ten gifts at higher prices and sales go up even though nobody bought more. He also expects goods prices to rise more slowly than headline inflation as retailers answer price-conscious shoppers. That’s his expectation, and November price tags will show whether it holds.
That split changes how to read the holiday sales forecast. If nearly half of a 4.2% headline is real growth, then real growth is roughly 2%, give or take. Retail Dive doesn’t spell that out, so treat the 2% as our rough reading and not an NRF number.
Pressure points: gas, diesel, and memory chips
NRF sounds upbeat. CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence that consumers will put the holidays first even as they watch their budgets, and that retailers are ready with competitive prices, value, and choices for every budget. Mathews called consumers the bright spot in the economy. But he didn’t stop there. He flagged inflation, rising gas prices, and pressure on household spending, and said different income groups will feel it differently.
He told Retail Dive that higher diesel and memory prices are weighing on popular gift categories like electronics. If gas prices stay high, he said, the hit to lower-income households will be bigger. We covered the fuel side in our report on gas prices and Brent crude.
Seasonal hiring stays steady
NRF expects retailers to bring on 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers. Its estimate for last year was 356,000, and Retail Dive notes that 2024 hiring reached 442,000. Retailers are being careful, citing gas prices, stubborn inflation, higher interest rates, and heavy consumer debt. Mathews called it a low hire, low fire labor market. For comparison, NRF had predicted 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers for 2025, so this year’s range sits higher at both ends.
For job seekers, that range means openings about like last year’s, not a surge. In our read, retailers aren’t planning for a sudden jump in foot traffic.
What it means for shoppers
A forecast for retailers isn’t advice for households, and the holiday sales forecast is better read as context than as a reason to spend. If you’re budgeting for gifts, start with what you can pay in cash without carrying a balance, and set the total before you see the deals. Our guide to making a budget shows one simple way. Consumer debt is on NRF’s own list of cautions, so buy-now-pay-later plans deserve a hard look too, and we explain how they work in our buy now, pay later guide.
This article is general information, not financial advice. The forecast describes the retail industry as a whole and says nothing about your finances.
What to watch next
Three things will show whether the holiday sales forecast holds. First, the monthly retail sales reports for October and November, which feed the same kind of model. Second, gas and diesel prices, since Mathews tied them to the risk for lower-income households. Third, early discounting. If stores cut prices deeply before Thanksgiving, that would hint at weaker demand than NRF assumes. And when the season’s final tally arrives, setting it beside this holiday sales forecast will show how far the model was off.
Editor’s take
The trillion-dollar headline is probably safer than the 4.2% rate behind it, because even last year’s slower pace would clear the line. The more useful figure is the one Mathews gave: nearly half of the growth is real, and the rest is price. Shoppers who plan a budget now and skip borrowing for gifts will be on firmer ground than any forecast. A forecast is only a starting point, and the next retail sales reports will show how close it lands.
